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Double Disillusion

Illustrations

Figures

Figure 6.1. Trajectories of support for various parties (voting intentions, per cent), 2013–16

Figure 6.2. Jumps in voting intentions associated with the prorogation of parliament and Turnbull ascension

Figure 6.3. Trajectories of support for various parties (voting intentions, per cent), restricted to calendar year 2016

Figure 6.4. Polling organisation bias estimates

Figure 6.5. Performance of seat-specific polls

Figure 6.6. Performance of seat-specific polls by party and pollster

Figure 6.7. Performance of seat-specific polls, by party and over time (days until election)

Figure 7.1. Total House of Representatives candidates per election, 1990–2016

Figure 7.2. Seats decided on preferences, 1993–2016

Figure 7.3. Winners of federal seats in Australia, 1984–2016

Figure 7.4. Non-classic races in federal elections, 1990–2016

Figure 7.5. Greens vote in inner-city federal electorates in Melbourne and Sydney

Figure 8.1. Informal vote at Senate elections, 1919–2016

Figure 8.2. Sample Senate ballot paper

Figure 8.3. Minor party vote at federal elections, 1949–2016

Figure 8.4. Use of above-the-line group voting squares, 1984–2016

Figure 9.1. Distribution of first preference votes, 2016 federal election (Tukey box plots)

Figure 9.2. Distribution of first preference votes, 2013 federal election (Tukey box plots)

Figure 9.3. Distribution of two-party preferred swing, 2013–16 (Tukey box plots)

Figure 11.1. ALP first preferences and two-party preferred vote, 1980–2016

Figure 11.2. ALP first preferences and swing, national and States, 2016

Figure 13.1. Greens election results, 1993–2016

Figure 14.1. Proportion of seats and primary votes for the Country–National Party for the House of Representatives

Figure 15.1. Per cent of first preference votes for minor parties and Independents

Figure 18.1. GetUp! analysis: Where do the parties stand on issues?

Figure 18.2. GetUp! – How to vote in Mayo

Figure 19.1. The number of front-page stories in Australia’s daily mastheads’ Monday to Saturday editions during the 56-day 2016 election campaign

Figure 19.2. Number of positive and negative daily front-page stories by masthead for Liberal and Labor

Figure 19.3. Number of positive and negative daily front-page news stories during the election campaign by political party

Figure 19.4. Story sentiment of front-page newspaper stories during the federal election for Liberal and Labor

Figure 20.1. Characterisation of reporting, by publication

Figure 20.2. Publications’ relationship with the median news agenda

Figure 21.1. The nature of debate

Figure 21.2. Election topics

Figure 21.3. Election experience

Figure 24.1. Media coverage of social issues at the 2016 election (number of articles)

Figure 24.2. Issues most important to Australians, 2013–16

Figure 25.1. Support for the carbon price, 2012–14

Figure 25.2. Views on Coalition and Labor climate change plans by voter groups

Figure 26.1. Refugees and the 2016 election

Figure 28.1. Women as a percentage of Coalition and Labor MPs in the House of Representatives, 1977–2016

Figure 28.2. Rainbow Labor, 2016 Mardi Gras

Tables

Table 5.1. Final pre-election public opinion polls for the House of Representatives election, national voting intention, 2 July 2016 (percentages)

Table 5.2. Mean differences between the final national polls and the election results, 2016 (percentage points)

Table 5.3. Differences between polls’ estimate of party support and the final vote, single seats, campaign period, 2016 (percentage points)

Table 6.1. Summary of poll errors

Table 7.1. Results of the 2013 federal election by party

Table 7.2. Results of the 2016 federal election by party

Table 7.3. Turnout 2013 and 2016 (percentages)

Table 7.4. Seats changing hands at the 2016 federal election

Table 8.1. Senate results compared to list-PR with highest remainder allocation

Table 8.2. Senate results in 2016 in States with six Coalition Senators

Table 8.3. Senate election results, 2016

Table 8.4. Difference in party support

Table 8.5. Senators elected by initial quota status

Table 8.6. Formal ballot papers categorised by method of completion and preferences

Table 8.7. Exhausted preferences by State

Table 9.1. Average Coalition and Labor first preference votes in lower house State and Territory elections, July 1996 – June 2016 (percentages)

Table 9.2. The States and Territories in 2016

Table 9.3. The major party leaders’ campaign visits to States and Territories

Table 9.4. Potential State effects on Coalition voting at the 2016 federal election

Table 9.5. House of Representatives two-party preferred vote by State and Territory, 2016

Table 9.6. House of Representatives first preference vote by State and Territory, 2016

Table 9.7. Results of principal components analysis of State- and electorate-level contribution to variations in the vote, 2013 and 2016

Table 10.1. Voter engagement with the election campaign, 2004–16 (percentages)

Table 10.2. Volatility and partisanship, 2004–16 (percentages)

Table 10.3. Vote by sociodemographic indicators in 2016 (percentages)

Table 10.4. Vote by socioeconomic indicators in 2016 (percentages)

Table 10.5. Party and leader evaluations in 2016 (means on 0–10 scale)

Table 10.6. Perceived leadership attributes of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten in 2016 (percentage saying attribute describes leader extremely well or quite well)

Table 10.7. Importance rating of election issues (percentage describing issue as extremely important) and party differential (percentage saying Liberal–National closer on issue minus percentage saying Labor closer) in 2016

Table 10.8. Factors influencing the vote in 2016 (multiple regression)

Table 13.1. State and federal representation (number of MPs)

Table 13.2. Press releases – top 10 topics

Table 13.3. House of Representatives seats—Greens vote over 15 per cent

Table 13.4. Results by State, 2013–16 (percentage)

Table 14.1. Proportions of votes and seats for the National Party in the House of Representatives, 2016

Table 15.1. Minor parties contesting the 2016 federal election

Table 15.2. One Nation results in the House of Representatives and the Senate

Table 15.3. The Nick Xenophon Team results in the House of Representatives and the Senate

Table 16.1. Results for Independents (and Katter), 2013 and 2016

Table 17.1. Ideological positions of Australian national interest groups

Table 18.1. Getup!’s 2016 Facebook posts with over 10,000 engagements, April–July 2016

Table 18.2. Facebook election posts with highest engagement – shares and comments

Table 18.3. Reportage of election campaign issues

Table 18.4. Reportage of election campaign tactics

Table 19.1. Ratings for free-to-air election night TV programs

Table 20.1. Sample and comparator publications

Table 20.2 Length of sampled articles

Table 20.3. Media content of sampled articles (percentage)

Table 20.4. Policy detail in sampled articles, average

Table 20.5. Top 15 topics, all publications

Table 20.6. Policy issues, all publications

Table 20.7. Names and organisations mentioned in sampled articles

Table 20.8. Most commonly cited electorates

Table 20.9. Articles syndicated from other news sources or containing significant references to other publications’ coverage

Table 20.10. Syndicated content providers

Table 20.11. Facebook likes for sampled articles

Table 21.1. Reliability test results

Table 21.2. Political affiliation

Table 22.1. Policy summary

Table 23.1. Regression equation predicting two-party preferred swing to the Coalition, 2016 election

Table 25.1. Parties’ environmental policy positions

Table 26.1. Overview of major party refugee policies

Table 28.1. Gender breakdown of the House of Representatives after the 2016 election

Table 28.2. Gender breakdown of the Senate after the 2016 election

Table 28.3. Gender breakdown of Cabinet, 2010–16

Table 28.4. LGBTI representation in the House of Representatives after the 2016 election

Table 28.5. LGBTI representation in the Senate after the 2016 election

Table 28.6. Women’s policies at federal elections, 2007–16

Table 29.1. Australian electorates (selective): Languages Other Than English (LOTE) spoken at home


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