List of figures

Figure 1.1: China’s share in global renewable energy capacity and EV sales, 2010–24 (per cent)

Figure 1.2: Trends in coal and renewable energy shares of China’s primary energy consumption, 2010–23 (per cent)

Figure 1.3: Trends in global and Chinese onshore wind installation costs

Figure 1.4: Solar PV export volumes

Figure 1.5: Installed energy storage capacity by country

Figure 2.1: Integrated assessment framework for modelling multidimensional economic, social and environmental benefits of China’s energy transition

Figure 2.2a: Changes in the proportions of China’s industrial structure under the CPS

Figure 2.2b: Changes in the proportions of China’s industrial structure under the EAS

Figure 2.3a: Changes in China’s total primary energy consumption under the CPS

Figure 2.3b: Changes in China’s total primary energy consumption under the EAS

Figure 2.4a: Changes in China’s carbon dioxide emissions under different scenarios

Figure 2.4b: Changes in China’s non–carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions under different scenarios

Figure 2.5a: Changes in emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and PM2.5

Figure 2.5b: Changes in PM2.5 concentration

Figure 2.6: Changes in premature deaths related to PM2.5 exposure

Figure 2.7: Cumulative costs and benefits of China’s energy transition

Figure 2.8a: Contribution of China’s PV exports to global carbon emission reductions

Figure 2.8b: Contribution of China’s wind turbine exports to global carbon emission reductions

Figure 3.1: Installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic energy in China, 2010–24

Figure 3.2: Real-time trading price data for Shandong electricity spot market on 1 May 2023

Figure 3.3: Sales volumes of electric vehicles in China, 2011–24

Figure 4.1: Structure of the PV–ES–CS model

Figure 4.2: Real versus predicted data

Figure 4.3: Hourly charging capacity distribution curve of charging station

Figure 4.4: Real and simulated charging times for charging station (24 hours)

Figure 4.5: Large users’ electricity consumption (typical day)

Figure 4.6: Peak-to-valley tariff in Beijing

Figure 4.7: Return on investment of various PV–ES–CS with different levels of investment

Figure 4.8: Carbon dioxide emissions reduction per unit of investment in PV–ES–CS

Figure 4.9: Beijing’s local power supply structure in 2020

Figure 4.10: Beijing’s energy balance in 2020 (terawatt hours)

Figure 4.11: Conceptual diagram of Beijing’s energy system

Figure 4.12: Synergistic development of renewable energy and fossil fuels

Figure 4.13: Schematic diagram of the EnergyPLAN model and the structure of Beijing’s electricity and heating sectors

Figure 4.14: Shares of locally generated renewable energy in Beijing’s electricity and heating systems

Figure 4.15: Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion in electricity and heating systems

Figure 4.16: Carbon dioxide emissions from electricity and heating systems with and without consideration of imported electricity and exportable excess electricity production under the business-as-usual scenario

Figure 5.1: Global electric vehicle sales, 2012–24

Figure 5.2: Comparison of electric vehicle brands and models by country

Figure 5.3: Distribution of electric vehicle stock and charging infrastructure in China

Figure 6.1: Total Chinese Government spending on the new-energy vehicle sector (RMB billion)

Figure 6.2: Chinese-made electric vehicles set to reach one-quarter of EU sales

Figure 7.1: Stages of green finance policy development in China

Figure 7.2: China’s green finance regulatory environment

Figure 7.3: Subnational green finance pilot programs in China

Figure 7.4: Green credits in China, 2013–24

Figure 7.5: China’s green bond issuance, 2016–24

Figure 7.6: Number and share of ESG funds in China, 2019–23

Figure 7.7: Policy framework for China’s Emissions Trading System

Figure 7.8: Policy framework for the China Carbon Emission Reduction program

Figure 7.9: Chinese Government-issued guidance and opinions relevant to greening finance in the Belt and Road Initiative

Figure 8.1: Chinese carbon dioxide emissions in 2019 and 2023

Figure 8.2: Energy sources of Chinese electricity production in 2019 and 2023 (terawatt hours)

Figure 8.3: Monthly coal production in China, 2017–23

Figure 9.1: Categories of local government debt in China

Figure 9.2: An effect of China’s 1994 tax-sharing reform

Figure 9.3: The relationship between municipal construction, GDP and local government debt in China, 2015–23

Figure 9.4: The hierarchical structure of the unitary political system in China

Figure 9.5: Distribution of special bond funds and LGFV bond issuance by business type

Figure 9.6: Local government debt balance in China, 2015–24

Figure 9.7: Local government bond balances in Chinese provinces in 2023

Figure 9.8: Local government bond issuance in China, 2015–24

Figure 9.9: Regional distribution of local government bond issuance in China in 2023

Figure 9.10: Interest-bearing debt balance of LGFVs, 2015–23

Figure 9.11: Interest-bearing debt balances of regional LGFVs in China in 2023

Figure 9.12: LGFV bond issuance, 2015–23

Figure 9.13: Regional LGFV bond issuance in 2023

Figure 9.14: Fund allocation of LGFV bond issuance, 2015–23

Figure 9.15: Regional fund allocation of LGFV bond issuances in 2023

Figure 9.16: Distribution of LGFV bond maturity in 2023

Figure 9.17: Distribution of coupon rates for LGFV bond issuance in 2023

Figure 9.18: Local government bond issuance for debt swaps, 2015–19

Figure 9.19: Local government bond issuance for the 2019 debt-swap program

Figure 9.20: Local government bond issuance for debt swaps, December 2020 – June 2022

Figure 9.21: Local government bond issuance for debt swaps in priority provinces versus non-priority provinces, October 2023 to September 2024

Figure 10.1: China’s general budget revenues and expenditures, 2000–25

Figure 10.2: Transfers as a share of central government revenues, China

Figure 10.3: Local government gross receipt of land revenues

Figure 10.4: Funds brought into local government general budgets

Figure 10.5: Local government outstanding bonds

Figure 10.6: Estimated augmented local government debt

Figure 10.7: Sustainability metrics for official local government debt, 2017–24

Figure 11.1: China’s current account and related variables, 1980–2023 (% of GDP): a. Current account balance; b. Exports and imports; c. Savings and investment; d. Consumption

Figure 11.2: China’s saving and consumption by sector (% of GDP): a. Saving; b. Consumption

Figure 11.3: China’s housing prices, 2000–21

Figure 11.4: China’s investment by sector (% of GDP)

Figure 11.5: China’s housing investment: a. Investment level (RMB trillion); b. Investment share (%)

Figure 11.6: China’s social security spending (% of GDP)

Figure 11.7: China’s foreign reserves (US$ trillion)

Figure 11.8: China’s nominal exchange rate (RMB per USD)

Figure 12.1: Trend of agricultural labour productivity in China and other developing regions, 1970–2022

Figure 12.2: Trend of the share of high-value agricultural products in China and other developing regions, 1970–2022

Figure 12.3: Trend in the share of non-agricultural GDP in China and other developing regions, 1970–2022

Figure 12.4: Trend in the share of non-agricultural employment in China and other developing regions, 1970–2022

Figure 12.5: Trend of tariff rate changes in China and other developing regions, 1990–2022

Figure 12.6: Trend of changes in the scale of irrigation infrastructure in China and other developing regions, 1970–2022

Figure 12.7: The pathways of agricultural capital intensification across countries (regions), 1978–2019

Figure 12.8: Pathways to agricultural productivity across countries (regions), 1978–2019

Figure 13.1: Annual GDP growth in China, 1980–2027 (%)

Figure 13.2: Trade as a share of GDP, 1970–2024 (%)

Figure 13.3: Decomposition of GDP growth contribution rate, 1978–2024 (%)

Figure 13.4: Global production network, 1995 and 2000 (all goods and services)

Figure 13.5: Global production network, 2011 (all goods and services)

Figure 13.6: Global production network, 2017 (all goods and services)

Figure 13.7: Percentage-point difference between the reliance of one country’s manufacturing sector on another country’s inputs, 2009–15

Figure 13.8: China’s share in total intermediate goods imports of major economies (%)

Figure 13.9: US import share in top 10 countries and regions, 2017 and 2022 (%)

Figure 13.10: Evolution of China’s inward greenfield FDI projects in the manufacturing sector, 2005–22

Figure 13.11: China’s domestic value added through third countries to the United States, 2011–22

Figure 13.12: Foreign direct investment in Vietnam from China and the United States, 2017–24 (US$ billion)

Figure 13.13: Destination countries for China’s outward FDI, 2017–22 (US$ million)

Figure 13.14: Shares of the ‘new three’ and ‘old three’ industries in total Chinese exports

Figure 13.15: Chinese exports of the ‘new three’ industries