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A Populist Exception?

List of Figures and Tables

Figures

Figure 2.1: Political polls (March–September 2017)

Figure 2.2: Content analysis (most important issue)

Figure 2.3: Real GDP and real GDP per capita in New Zealand (2007–2017)

Figure 2.4: Parties closest to voters’ positions on different issues

Figure 2.5: Change in number of effective parties in OECD countries (2016–2007/2007–1990)

Figure 2.6: Change in electoral volatility in OECD countries (2016–2007/2007–1990)

Figure 2.7: The urban–rural divide and major party voting (1972–2017)

Figure 2.8: Variance explained by the urban–rural divide on the electorate vote (1972–2017)

Figure 2.9: The Alford Index of class voting in New Zealand (1963–2017)

Figure 2.10: Probabilities of party vote for the National Party

Figure 2.11: Probability of Labour Party vote

Figure 2.12: Probability of vote for the Green Party

Figure 2.13: Probabilities of party vote for New Zealand First

Figure 3.1: The components of populist attitudes

Figure 3.2: Five-factor structure underlying the CSES questions in the NZES

Figure 3.3: Relative probabilities of being populist and authoritarian by social groups

Figure 4.1: Populism, authoritarianism and the left–right scale

Figure 4.2: Populism, authoritarianism and vote choice in 2017

Figure 4.3: Populism conditioned by time of government formation

Figure 4.4: Satisfaction with democracy in New Zealand (1996–2017)

Figure 4.5: Satisfaction with and support for democracy in New Zealand

Figure 4.6: Generational comparisons of support for democracy

Figure 4.7: Satisfaction with democracy, support for democracy and authoritarianism

Figure 4.8: Satisfaction with democracy, support for democracy and income

Figure 4.9: Democratic satisfaction, support for democracy and external efficacy

Figure 4.10: Democratic satisfaction, support for democracy and populism

Figure 4.11: How populism and age affect democratic support

Figure 5.1: Percentage of people who want immigration reduced ‘a lot’ or ‘a little’ in New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom

Figure 5.2: Percentage of voters who agree or strongly agree that immigration is good for the economy

Figure 5.3: Percentage wanting immigration reduced by views on economic benefits

Figure 5.4: Percentage of voters who agree or strongly agree that migration is a threat to their country’s culture

Figure 5.5: Percentage wanting immigration reduced by views on whether immigration harms culture

Figure 5.6: Percentage of voters who think immigrants increase crime rates

Figure 5.7: Decomposing the effects of populist attitudes on preference to reduce immigration

Figure 5.8: Decomposing the effects of authoritarian attitudes on preferences to reduce immigration

Figure 5.9: Probabilities of wanting migration reduced

Figure 5.10: Percentage of voters wanting immigration reduced in 2017, by party vote

Figure 5.11: Percentage of voters wanting immigration reduced a lot or a little by party preference

Figure 6.1: Likeability of Jacinda Ardern and Bill English

Figure 6.2: Gender and attitudes to leadership qualities

Figure 6.3: Likeability for Ardern and English by gender and generation

Figure 6.4: Populist and authoritarian attitudes in relation to the likeability of Jacinda Ardern

Figure 6.5: Average scores for the likeability of Ardern by demographics

Figure 6.6: Average scores by gender and generation for ‘On the whole, men make better political leaders than women do’

Figure 6.7: Average scores by gender to the statement ‘Society would be better off if women stayed home with their children’ (over time)

Figure 6.8: Average scores by gender and generation to the statement ‘Society would be better off if women stayed home with their children’

Figure 6.9: Gender gap, voters and non-voters (2014–2017)

Figure 6.10: Agree or strongly agree that ‘The law should be strengthened to reduce pay differences between women and men’ (%)

Figure 6.11: Interest in politics by gender

Figure 6.12: Views on the statement ‘Abortion is always wrong’ across years

Figure 6.13: Gender-generational differences on abortion

Figure 7.1: The proportion of the party vote in the Māori electorates by party across elections

Figure 7.2: Mean likeability ratings by party in 2017 (from 0 [strongly dislike] to 10 [strongly like]) across Non-Māori, Māori on the general roll and Māori on the Māori roll

Figure 7.3: Mean likeability ratings for party leaders (0 [strongly dislike] to 10 [strongly like])

Figure 7.4: Average populism scores for Māori on the Māori roll, Māori on the general roll and non-Māori

Figure 7.5: The percentage of people opposed to the Māori seats/electorates

Figure 7.6: Attitudes towards the abolition of the Māori electorates

Figure 8.1: Preferences for a National- or Labour-led government

Figure 8.2: Party, alternative government and respondent right–left positioning and distance from the average and median voters

Figure 8.3: Jacinda Ardern and Bill English—how trust and competence can be used to describe them

Figure 8.4: The state of the economy over the last 12 months prior to the 2014 and 2017 elections

Figure 8.5: Associations between populism, authoritarianism and left–right position on preferences for single party or multi-party governments

Figure 8.6: Coalition versus one-party government summary scale (2014–2017)

Figure 8.7: Satisfaction with democracy (2014–2017)

Figure 8.8: One-party versus multi-party government and party votes

Figure 8.9: Coalition/one-party government preferences and age cohorts

Figure A8.1: Reported and validated votes (before and after government formation)

Figure 9.1: Public opinion polling and party vote intentions (2017–2020)

Figure 9.2: Public opinion polling regarding preferred prime minister (2017–2019)

Tables

Table 2.1: The 2017 and 2014 elections—party votes and seats

Table 2.2: Estimated flows of votes (2014–2017)

Table 2.3: Issue salience (by word count and codes)

Table 2.4: The social and demographic structural correlates of voting choice

Table A2.1: Estimated flows of the votes (2014–2017) (New Zealand Election Survey Panel)

Table A2.2: Party voting groups and social structure—multinomial logit model

Table A3.1: Item content and factor loadings for the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems populism items

Table A3.2: Item content and factor loadings for the New Zealand Electoral Survey populism, authoritarianism and outgroups items

Table A3.3: Social and demographic correlates of populism and authoritarianism

Table 4.1: Populist words and phrases in New Zealand politics

Table A4.1: Populism, authoritarianism and the self-assigned left (0)–right (10) position

Table A4.2: Populism, authoritarianism and party vote in 2017

Table A4.3: Satisfaction with democracy

Table A4.4: Democracy is better

Table A5.1: The social and demographic correlates of immigration opinion

Table A5.2: Attitudinal correlates of preferences to reduce immigration or not

Table A5.3: Immigration opinion and the party vote without attitudinal controls

Table A5.4: Immigration and the party vote with attitudinal controls

Table A5.5: Components of immigration attitudes and the party vote

Table A5.6: Populism, nativism, authoritarianism, components of immigration opinion and the party vote

Table 6.1: Emotional responses to Jacinda Ardern becoming party leader (%)

Table 6.2: Emotional responses to Jacinda Ardern by party and gender (%)

Table 6.3: Preferred prime minister by gender

Table 6.4: The gender gap in party vote (National/Labour parties; 1996–2017)

Table 6.5: Social, cultural and environmental attitudes by gender

Table A6.1: Social and demographic correlates of likeability of Ardern

Table 7.1: The proportion of the vote gained by candidates in the Māori electorates by party across election

Table 7.2: Turnout by electorate and the change in turnout between 2014 and 2017

Table 7.3: The frequency of engaging in various political activities by descent and roll type

Table A7.1: Abolish Māori electorates (logistic regression)

Table A8.1: Evaluations of coalition versus single-party governments (1993–2017)

Table A8.2: Populism, authoritarianism and coalition/one-party government preferences

Table A8.3: Attitudes to single or multi-party government: Vote choice and government formation (Model 1); generations and government formation (Model 2)


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